洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型

为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网(FPN)为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明:正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。     

Catalytic oxidation of CO over Pt/Fe3O4 catalysts: Tuning O2 activation and CO adsorption

• Strong metal-support interaction exists on Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. • Pt metal particles facilitate the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. • Fe₃O₄ supports enhance the strength of CO adsorption on Pt metal particles. The self-inhibition behavior due to CO poisoning on Pt metal particles strongly impairs the performance of CO oxidation. It is an effective method to use reducible metal oxides for supporting Pt metal particles to avoid self-inhibition and to improve catalytic performance. In this work, we used in situ reductions of chloroplatinic acid on commercial Fe₃O₄ powder to prepare heterogeneous-structured Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts in the solution of ethylene glycol. The heterogeneous Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts achieved a better catalytic performance of CO oxidation compared with the Fe₃O₄ powder. The temperatures of 50% and 90% CO conversion were achieved above 260°C and 290°C at Pt/Fe₃O₄, respectively. However, they are accomplished on Fe₃O₄ at temperatures higher than 310°C. XRD, XPS, and H₂-TPR results confirmed that the metallic Pt atoms have a strong synergistic interaction with the Fe₃O₄ supports. TGA results and transient DRIFTS results proved that the Pt metal particles facilitate the release of lattice oxygen and the formation of oxygen vacancies on Fe₃O₄. The combined results of O₂-TPD and DRIFTS indicated that the activation step of oxygen molecules at surface oxygen vacancies could potentially be the rate-determining step of the catalytic CO oxidation at Pt/Fe₃O₄ catalysts. The reaction pathway involves a Pt-assisted Mars-van Krevelen (MvK) mechanism.     

农地整治权属调整中农户认知对行为响应的作用机制--基于改进TPB及多群组SEM

农地整治权属调整是实现农业规模化和现代化的重要手段,而农户有效参与是推动权属调整的内在动力,研究农地整治权属调整中农户认知对其行为响应的作用机制,有助于高效引导农户参与权属调整,并为制定农地整治权属调整的政策提供科学依据。基于改进计划行为理论和湖北省11个县(市、区)1044份农户抽样调查数据,采用多群组结构方程模型探究了农地整治权属调整中不同类型农户认知对其行为响应的作用机制。结果表明:农地整治权属调整中农户行为逻辑符合改进计划行为理论,农户的行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制交互影响行为意愿,进而转换为行为响应,政府支持在行为意愿和行为响应之间起到部分中介作用。总体上,农户行为响应是"自发性""诱发性"和"约束性"三重行动逻辑的结合,且"自发性"占主导地位。多群组结构方程估计结果表明,纯农型与兼业Ⅰ型农户的行为响应受到"自发性""诱发性"和"约束性"三重影响,兼业Ⅱ型农户受到"自发性"和"诱发性"双重影响,非农型农户仅受到"诱发性"单一影响。因此,为引导农户积极参与农地整治权属调整,应该分别针对各类农户相应地提高其参与的"自发性"和"诱发性",降低"约束性",充分发挥农村社会经济组织的作用,将四种不同类型农户的利益需求统筹考虑,降低权属调整过程中利益协调难度。     

隧道救援站通风网络优化设计及人员疏散研究*

为确定铁路隧道救援站最佳通风结构，对烟道布置提出合理建议，采用计算流体力学（CFD）的方法，对铁路隧道救援站通风网络进行优化设计。同时，采用模拟计算的方法对救援站人员疏散进行模拟分析，确定救援横通道布置及防护门开度设置的合理性。研究结果表明:在同等通风参数工况设置下，采用多节点排烟竖井结构后各救援横通道流量分配更均匀，救援站压力平衡性更好，通风效率可提升15%；通过疏散模拟证实，在长560 m的紧急救援站范围内设置10条疏散横通道，横通道设1.7 m宽的逃生门能够满足疏散要求。     

铁路沿线可燃重气储罐最小隔离区域划分探讨*

为保护铁路线，以某化工厂距离高铁路线最近的丙烯球罐为例，提出丙烯球罐泄漏最小隔离区域划分方法以及2种保护高铁线路方案，利用重气扩散模型和定量风险评价（QRA）软件分别进行丙烯扩散模拟、爆炸模拟，并进行危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）和保护层分析（LOPA）。结果表明:球罐发生泄漏及火灾爆炸等事故，会给附近铁路线带来严重破坏；丙烯泄漏或球罐因周围其他设备设施或可燃物质着火而温度升高时，保护措施不足；隧道的安全可靠性要高于仅设1道防爆墙，隧道长度需覆盖最小隔离区域的可及范围，在扩散区域内也需设立普通挡墙，在极度危险情况下，需要实施高铁停开等保护措施。     

Metabolic uncoupler, 3,3′,4′,5-tetrachlorosalicylanilide addition for sludge reduction and fouling control in a gravity-driven membrane bioreactor

• Effects of metabolic uncoupler TCS on the performances of GDMBR were evaluated. • Sludge EPS reduced and transformed into dissolved SMP when TCS was added. • Appropriate TCS increased the permeability and reduced cake layer fouling. • High dosage aggravated fouling due to compact cake layer with low bio-activity. The gravity-driven membrane bioreactor (MBR)system is promising for decentralized sewage treatment because of its low energy consumption and maintenance requirements. However, the growing sludge not only increases membrane fouling, but also augments operational complexities (sludge discharge). We added the metabolic uncoupler 3,3′,4′,5-tetrachlorosalicylanilide (TCS) to the system to deal with the mentioned issues. Based on the results, TCS addition effectively decreased sludge ATP and sludge yield (reduced by 50%). Extracellular polymeric substances (EPS; proteins and polysaccharides) decreased with the addition of TCS and were transformed into dissolved soluble microbial products (SMPs) in the bulk solution, leading to the break of sludge flocs into small fragments. Permeability was increased by more than two times, reaching 60–70 L/m²/h bar when 10–30 mg/L TCS were added, because of the reduced suspended sludge and the formation of a thin cake layer with low EPS levels. Resistance analyses confirmed that appropriate dosages of TCS primarily decreased the cake layer and hydraulically reversible resistances. Permeability decreased at high dosage (50 mg/L) due to the release of excess sludge fragments and SMP into the supernatant, with a thin but more compact fouling layer with low bioactivity developing on the membrane surface, causing higher cake layer and pore blocking resistances. Our study provides a fundamental understanding of how a metabolic uncoupler affects the sludge and bio-fouling layers at different dosages, with practical relevance for in situ sludge reduction and membrane fouling alleviation in MBR systems.     

基于3S技术对太湖底质及水质总磷的研究

应用3S技术研究了太湖底质与水质总磷(TP)的分布情况,并结合水华频次分析了其相关性。结果表明:2016—2018年,太湖底质TP年均值在433~537 mg/kg波动,水质TP年均值从0.064 mg/L上升至0.087 mg/L。从空间分布来看,底质TP、水质TP和水华频次均呈现“西高东低”的规律,太湖西部区尤其是竺山湖区是需要开展治理的重点区域。3年间,太湖西部区水质TP上升,而底质TP与入湖河流TP下降,说明内源磷污染是太湖西部区水质TP升高的主要原因,须加强科学清淤。     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷，提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态；依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量；根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系，针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题，采用模糊证据推理技术，通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例，验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确，是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

移动通信技术发展对安全生产影响研究*

为了深入揭示安全生产水平同移动通信技术发展的内在联系，提出安全生产信息技术能力的概念及其监控管理连接、救援响应监测、定位导航追踪3方面子能力的定义，进而通过构建3方面子能力同移动通信主要性能指标之间的关系模型（SPITCMC），并对其进行深入分析和研究。研究结果表明:SPITCMC模型可以准确诠释过去移动通信技术发展对安全生产水平产生的影响，同时可用于预判未来移动通信技术发展对安全生产可能产生的影响程度，从而为后续相关工作的开展提供参考和借鉴。